Kiplinger Dying Professions

[kodydog]

Some of you may have seen this floating around on facebook. I don't know what to think. Kind of depressing.

This is from Kiplinger magazine.

To help job seekers avoid some of these dying professions, we analyzed 784 popular occupations. Take a look at 10 of the worst jobs for the future.
#3 is  Textile Machine Worker
#5 is Sewing Machine Operator
#7 is tailor

Take a wild guess what # 8 is

If you guessed upholsterer you would be right.
Job growth, 2005-2015: -25.4%
Projected job growth, 2015-2025: -3.3%
Median annual salary: $30,023

It then goes on to say what we have all discussed here before.
"Online marketplaces and discount retailers are bringing down furniture prices--and the demand for upholsterers with them. "As people are able to buy furniture at lower prices online or in stores like Ikea, they're tending to replace things instead of repair them"



A couple of things they did not mention.
1.   You cannot buy an antique at a discount furniture store.
2.   You cannot get grandmas heirloom chair recovered at a discount furniture store.
3.   You cannot get a custom hot rod upholstered at a discount furniture store.
4.   You can make a pretty good living fixing the stuff they sell at the discount furniture stores.

As most of you know over the last 6 years I've been back and fourth working for other people and working for myself. I guarantee I could find a job next week if I really needed one. Granted, I have 30 years experience and lots of skills. I know what employers are looking for and know how to sell myself. Someone with 2 or 3 years experience and all they know how to do is take the old fabric off and put the new fabric on may have a hard time finding a job. But that goes with any profession, the more experience you have the more valuable you are.

http://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/business/T012-S001-worst-jobs-for-the-future-2016/index.html

[brmax]

It is these articles that upset me and remind me that fewer of us requires each of us to follow more rules.
I didn't work for 30 in the heat, snow, field dirt along with trudging in the mud with a steel pot for a helmet to have to follow rules, btdt.
I suppose its time for more papers to hang on a wall! that always gets the good task : )
Lets think positive, as some buck took over my past career task, though they went through 3 in 5 years and moving and shift people around to maintain something.
So I'm looking forward and as I once was new many times and enjoyed good times though tough!

Good Morning!

[Rich]

I think a good question to ask is "where are the skills I have needed right now?" That may land us in a place we weren't even thinking of when we saw ourselves as "upholsterers" because of what we associate upholstery work with. It may not be what we've thought. It may be something different but still utilizing knowledge we have.
Rich

[sofadoc]

At least we came in just ahead of Photo Processor. I guess not having any film makes it tough.
Actually, I'm kinda surprised that Kiplinger even considers us relevant enough to even put us on the list. It's almost like listing Blacksmith or Cobbler.

But I think that there is one main factor that may be skewing those numbers somewhat.
Many, many people are doing upholstery that Kiplinger can't track through any government statistics, because they work from their garage, and don't tell Uncle Sam about it. And for some of those who DO report their income from upholstery, they don't necessarily report ALL of it.

But I guess that an "underground" segment of most any trade exists.

A pastor once asked me why I thought that statistics show more divorces within the church than from non-church marriages. My answer is simple. Non-church people don't always bother to officially get married. Or they live together for several years to determine compatibility before tying the knot. Or they just go their separate ways without officially getting a divorce. This analogy may sound like I'm getting off-topic, but I use it to illustrate how numbers can be misleading.

When I was in high school, I went to work for a TV repair shop. The head repairman took me under his wing, and taught me everything he knew. He promised me that I would always have a future in that business because there would always be TVs that needed fixing. That guy became a plumber about 5 years later.

[MinUph]

Check this out..
http://m.wfae.org/post/demand-upholsterers-drives-cvcc-furniture-academy

[kodydog]

The statistics show Church goers are more likely to get a divorce. I think we can all agree that's not accurate. This shows how statistics can be skewed any way you like. Politicians do it all the time.

[kodydog]

Great counter article Paul. I took many adult night courses at Catawba Valley Community College when we lived in Hickory. Including a great woodworking class. Its a great school where one can learn just about anything about the furniture industry. From design to management to all the hands on aspects of furniture building

The article says,
"Here, students learn a craft that, for the most part, hasn't changed much over the last century."

Although tools and padding have changed it must all be done by hand.

[sofadoc]

It does seem that for every article proclaiming our trade to be on life support, there's another article about a resurgence.

I think that one"tell tale" sign would be to take a long look at the upholstery supply industry. 20 years ago, I had 8-10 salesmen calling on my little shop monthly. And I could drive into Dallas to more than a dozen wholesale supply houses all within 5 or 6 blocks of each other.

Now, most of the suppliers have consolidated their warehouses to just a few main distribution hubs nationwide. And the traveling salesman is all but extinct.

But on the other hand, we now have about a zillion online sources.

So is the supply industry shrinking? Or just evolving?

[MinUph]

This being an estimate. I work with around a dozen fabric suppliers and at least 8 of them are serviced by walk in sales people. A couple of the salesmen do service multiple companies but at least I see them and they update their books regularly. Not all but some companies. It use to be all but that has fallen by the wayside.
  My supplier (next door) does very well. He is busy just like we are. Again I think it is location specific. I'm sure in Syracuse NY it is dead.

[sofadoc]

This being an estimate. I work with around a dozen fabric suppliers and at least 8 of them are serviced by walk in sales people. A couple of the salesmen do service multiple companies but at least I see them and they update their books regularly. Not all but some companies. It use to be all but that has fallen by the wayside.
  My supplier (next door) does very well. He is busy just like we are. Again I think it is location specific. I'm sure in Syracuse NY it is dead.

Yeah, back in the day, it was nothing to have 2 or 3 salesmen in our shop at the same time. Now, I get about 2 visits a year from a couple of guys.

And those guys tell me that the stops on their route get fewer and farther between every year.

[byhammerandhand]

I got a second-hand copy of this book in the early 1970s when I was a math major.  It was old then (1954), but has been one of my favorite books.  


I read a similar one last year with even more examples.


 One thing being a math major does is teaches you to be a skeptic, "In God we trust, all others bring proof."

The statistics show Church goers are more likely to get a divorce. I think we can all agree that's not accurate. This shows how statistics can be skewed any way you like. Politicians do it all the time.

[gene]

The statistics show Church goers are more likely to get a divorce. I think we can all agree that's not accurate.

Nope. We can't all agree. I would ask for citations, please. In the past I've found surveys that are deliberately flawed on both sides of the fence, but no actual research numbers.
---------------------------
SofaD, I got a chuckle from your example where you defined non married people to be part of the married population. I guess being married doesn't mean what it used to mean.  ???

But I do get your point. Statistics were originally used to help us understand the nature of the world around us. Today statistics are used to deceive us about the nature of the world around us.
---------------------------

I use it to illustrate how numbers can be misleading.

Look what they did to the number 42!

gene

PS: I did post a reply that was on topic yesterday. It seems it got deleted or I possibly failed to hit the post button. So, I'm only half off topic.

[Darren Henry]

It's almost like listing Blacksmith or Cobbler.

ROFL. You knew I was going to get all over this! More on the subject over my morning coffee.

[sofadoc]

SofaD, I got a chuckle from your example where you defined non married people to be part of the married population. I guess being married doesn't mean what it used to mean.

You have to remember.........I was debating this topic with a pastor. So in the eyes of the church, non married people ARE married. So the church should count it as a divorce even if the government statistics don't. It's all about skewing the numbers.

[Darren Henry]

When I got starved out of hand making shoes there were a grand total of 6 places in all of Canada where I could work in trade. Since then at least one of the guys has died and my old master's daughter had to close up because her shoemaker spent too much time back home in Mexico.

Shoe repair has gone the same route. People no longer think to repair anything. The bread and butter of shoe repair used to be 1/2 soles and lifts  ( the rubber part on the bottom of your heel). People forgot that that could even be done and the only work coming in was glueing sandals and stitching purses etc..., but no one wanted to pay what it was worth. There is a slow revival starting but the masses need to be better educated.

I  see this happening with our trade(s) as well. I think we need to find ways to educate the public about the benefits of our services [yes you can buy a bag of hockey sticks and cardboard that look like this chair will when I'm done for the same price---but it will be garbage in no time] and the time and expertise required to do a quality job. How often have you seen a customer get banjo-eyed when you point out that to "just sew up this little rip" you have to remove the entire  inside back and remove all the loose stuffing? I try to also market the advantages of keeping that old sofa out of the landfill and supporting our economy instead of overseas market where you are months away from any warranty parts.