Some of you may have seen this floating around on facebook. I don't know what to think. Kind of depressing.
This is from Kiplinger magazine.
To help job seekers avoid some of these dying professions, we analyzed 784 popular occupations. Take a look at 10 of the worst jobs for the future.
#3 is Textile Machine Worker
#5 is Sewing Machine Operator
#7 is tailor
Take a wild guess what # 8 is
If you guessed upholsterer you would be right.
Job growth, 2005-2015: -25.4%
Projected job growth, 2015-2025: -3.3%
Median annual salary: $30,023
It then goes on to say what we have all discussed here before.
"Online marketplaces and discount retailers are bringing down furniture prices--and the demand for upholsterers with them. "As people are able to buy furniture at lower prices online or in stores like Ikea, they're tending to replace things instead of repair them"
A couple of things they did not mention.
1. You cannot buy an antique at a discount furniture store.
2. You cannot get grandmas heirloom chair recovered at a discount furniture store.
3. You cannot get a custom hot rod upholstered at a discount furniture store.
4. You can make a pretty good living fixing the stuff they sell at the discount furniture stores.
As most of you know over the last 6 years I've been back and fourth working for other people and working for myself. I guarantee I could find a job next week if I really needed one. Granted, I have 30 years experience and lots of skills. I know what employers are looking for and know how to sell myself. Someone with 2 or 3 years experience and all they know how to do is take the old fabric off and put the new fabric on may have a hard time finding a job. But that goes with any profession, the more experience you have the more valuable you are.
http://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/business/T012-S001-worst-jobs-for-the-future-2016/index.html
It is these articles that upset me and remind me that fewer of us requires each of us to follow more rules.
I didn't work for 30 in the heat, snow, field dirt along with trudging in the mud with a steel pot for a helmet to have to follow rules, btdt.
I suppose its time for more papers to hang on a wall! that always gets the good task : )
Lets think positive, as some buck took over my past career task, though they went through 3 in 5 years and moving and shift people around to maintain something.
So I'm looking forward and as I once was new many times and enjoyed good times though tough!
Good Morning!
I think a good question to ask is "where are the skills I have needed right now?" That may land us in a place we weren't even thinking of when we saw ourselves as "upholsterers" because of what we associate upholstery work with. It may not be what we've thought. It may be something different but still utilizing knowledge we have.
Rich
At least we came in just ahead of Photo Processor. I guess not having any film makes it tough.
Actually, I'm kinda surprised that Kiplinger even considers us relevant enough to even put us on the list. It's almost like listing Blacksmith or Cobbler.
But I think that there is one main factor that may be skewing those numbers somewhat.
Many, many people are doing upholstery that Kiplinger can't track through any government statistics, because they work from their garage, and don't tell Uncle Sam about it. And for some of those who DO report their income from upholstery, they don't necessarily report ALL of it.
But I guess that an "underground" segment of most any trade exists.
A pastor once asked me why I thought that statistics show more divorces within the church than from non-church marriages. My answer is simple. Non-church people don't always bother to officially get married. Or they live together for several years to determine compatibility before tying the knot. Or they just go their separate ways without officially getting a divorce. This analogy may sound like I'm getting off-topic, but I use it to illustrate how numbers can be misleading.
When I was in high school, I went to work for a TV repair shop. The head repairman took me under his wing, and taught me everything he knew. He promised me that I would always have a future in that business because there would always be TVs that needed fixing. That guy became a plumber about 5 years later.
Check this out..
http://m.wfae.org/post/demand-upholsterers-drives-cvcc-furniture-academy
The statistics show Church goers are more likely to get a divorce. I think we can all agree that's not accurate. This shows how statistics can be skewed any way you like. Politicians do it all the time.
Great counter article Paul. I took many adult night courses at Catawba Valley Community College when we lived in Hickory. Including a great woodworking class. Its a great school where one can learn just about anything about the furniture industry. From design to management to all the hands on aspects of furniture building
The article says,
"Here, students learn a craft that, for the most part, hasn't changed much over the last century."
Although tools and padding have changed it must all be done by hand.
It does seem that for every article proclaiming our trade to be on life support, there's another article about a resurgence.
I think that one"tell tale" sign would be to take a long look at the upholstery supply industry. 20 years ago, I had 8-10 salesmen calling on my little shop monthly. And I could drive into Dallas to more than a dozen wholesale supply houses all within 5 or 6 blocks of each other.
Now, most of the suppliers have consolidated their warehouses to just a few main distribution hubs nationwide. And the traveling salesman is all but extinct.
But on the other hand, we now have about a zillion online sources.
So is the supply industry shrinking? Or just evolving?
This being an estimate. I work with around a dozen fabric suppliers and at least 8 of them are serviced by walk in sales people. A couple of the salesmen do service multiple companies but at least I see them and they update their books regularly. Not all but some companies. It use to be all but that has fallen by the wayside.
My supplier (next door) does very well. He is busy just like we are. Again I think it is location specific. I'm sure in Syracuse NY it is dead.
Quote from: MinUph on August 02, 2016, 08:41:57 am
This being an estimate. I work with around a dozen fabric suppliers and at least 8 of them are serviced by walk in sales people. A couple of the salesmen do service multiple companies but at least I see them and they update their books regularly. Not all but some companies. It use to be all but that has fallen by the wayside.
My supplier (next door) does very well. He is busy just like we are. Again I think it is location specific. I'm sure in Syracuse NY it is dead.
Yeah, back in the day, it was nothing to have 2 or 3 salesmen in our shop at the same time. Now, I get about 2 visits a year from a couple of guys.
And those guys tell me that the stops on their route get fewer and farther between every year.
I got a second-hand copy of this book in the early 1970s when I was a math major. It was old then (1954), but has been one of my favorite books.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/2a/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics.jpg)
I read a similar one last year with even more examples.
(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51sCBfLItpL._SX334_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg)
One thing being a math major does is teaches you to be a skeptic, "In God we trust, all others bring proof."
Quote from: kodydog on August 02, 2016, 07:22:53 am
The statistics show Church goers are more likely to get a divorce. I think we can all agree that's not accurate. This shows how statistics can be skewed any way you like. Politicians do it all the time.
QuoteThe statistics show Church goers are more likely to get a divorce. I think we can all agree that's not accurate.
Nope. We can't all agree. I would ask for citations, please. In the past I've found surveys that are deliberately flawed on both sides of the fence, but no actual research numbers.
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SofaD, I got a chuckle from your example where you defined non married people to be part of the married population. I guess being married doesn't mean what it used to mean. ???
But I do get your point. Statistics were originally used to help us understand the nature of the world around us. Today statistics are used to deceive us about the nature of the world around us.
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QuoteI use it to illustrate how numbers can be misleading.
Look what they did to the number 42!
gene
PS: I did post a reply that was on topic yesterday. It seems it got deleted or I possibly failed to hit the post button. So, I'm only half off topic.
QuoteIt's almost like listing Blacksmith or Cobbler.
ROFL. You knew I was going to get all over this! More on the subject over my morning coffee.
Quote from: gene on August 02, 2016, 04:44:12 pm
SofaD, I got a chuckle from your example where you defined non married people to be part of the married population. I guess being married doesn't mean what it used to mean.
You have to remember.........I was debating this topic with a pastor. So in the eyes of the church, non married people ARE married. So the church should count it as a divorce even if the government statistics don't. It's all about skewing the numbers.
When I got starved out of hand making shoes there were a grand total of 6 places in all of Canada where I could work in trade. Since then at least one of the guys has died and my old master's daughter had to close up because her shoemaker spent too much time back home in Mexico.
Shoe repair has gone the same route. People no longer think to repair anything. The bread and butter of shoe repair used to be 1/2 soles and lifts ( the rubber part on the bottom of your heel). People forgot that that could even be done and the only work coming in was glueing sandals and stitching purses etc..., but no one wanted to pay what it was worth. There is a slow revival starting but the masses need to be better educated.
I see this happening with our trade(s) as well. I think we need to find ways to educate the public about the benefits of our services [yes you can buy a bag of hockey sticks and cardboard that look like this chair will when I'm done for the same price---but it will be garbage in no time] and the time and expertise required to do a quality job. How often have you seen a customer get banjo-eyed when you point out that to "just sew up this little rip" you have to remove the entire inside back and remove all the loose stuffing? I try to also market the advantages of keeping that old sofa out of the landfill and supporting our economy instead of overseas market where you are months away from any warranty parts.
So true what is being said, change is inevitable - driven by technology and cheaper labor in other parts of our world.
In the upholstery service field the change started way back and continues. If there isn't a way to for people involved in the craft to reconnect, so to speak, then like many are witnessing here, workers have to go in another direction.
Asian workers, as an example, it is reported are $3 a day workers.
Go figure,
Doyle
Darren, I have to disagree with "I think we need to find ways to educate the public about the benefits of our services".
I remember back in the early 80's, I was doing sublet work for an auto customizer who was doing vinyl tops and electric moonroofs for some Saudi businessmen. He told me "we don't make trends, we follow them". That stuck with me. He said, we are too small to have such an influence on people they way large corporations can sometimes do (Think Apple etc.). So what are we to do? Look around, see the attitudes, then think of ways to satisfy them. I hate the way that people want to buy cheap and end up contributing their upholstered furniture to the county landfill, but I don't have the time nor energy to tell them not to do that. Instead, I do different work, work that the customers in my area think is worth paying for.
Rich
Two weeks ago I heard the term "brown", used to describe older furniture and antiques. It's meant to be derogatory. I do a lot of reupholstery for retired folks who spent their lives buying the best furniture available and collecting antique furniture. They are downsizing and often cannot give their furniture away to their grandchildren who are married and just starting families.
I think young people like to shop. And if they buy quality furniture that will last a lifetime, they will miss out on the many trips they could have made to IKEA or Costco to replace their broken chairs and worn out sofas.
gene
Something I have for many years seen, in writing and conveyed in word and is bullshit.
Using the term "Low skill manufacturing", This term Low skill working with your hands is in my experience from the writer and others who most likely couldn't touch their nose with their own finger.
I also have found the educated around me in a medium government town to be overly educated without pay because it does not require the education they have to punch a keyboard, adding to that fact they have promoted education in areas of non production, non demand, and no responsibility.
This is simple to see and we have commented many times on the couch potato, game playing youngsters that need to be moving around in competitions and letting them know full well when your team is not the winner of the game its "not" and that is why they don't get the ice cream or treats.
Floyd
Quote from: gene on August 04, 2016, 05:04:40 am
I think young people like to shop. And if they buy quality furniture that will last a lifetime, they will miss out on the many trips they could have made to IKEA or Costco to replace their broken chairs and worn out sofas.
Sums it up pretty well. People nowadays don't even WANT their stuff to last. Because if it did, they wouldn't have any reason to buy new stuff.
And people love to buy new stuff.
re: Low skill professions.
A lot of these will be done by robots. I took a tour of a cabinet factory last year and aside from the finish room and the owner keying the design options into his "cabinet software," about all the labor did was move parts from one machine to the next. Saw a brick laying robot last week.
Not saying that we will someday have robo-upholsterers, but I'd say it's a better than even chance. CNCs to cut and stitch fabric, CNC to cut frame parts, robo-arms to assemble them and add glue and fasteners, snap on the springs and padding, and reach and staple on the fabric.
I think young people like to shop. And if they buy quality furniture that will last a lifetime, they will miss out on the many trips they could have made to IKEA or Costco to replace their broken chairs and worn out sofas.
Excellent comment Gene! For whatever reason, shopping has become a national pastime, an idol if you will. Many of us can't resist the rush from going out to buy something NEW. Makes us feel important, refreshed, lifts our spirits etc.
I guess re-upholstery did that for past generations, but not so much today.
Rich
You're dead right Rich. We cannot change public mentality, but so many of these "Daddy buy me the new X-box right now!" kids are suddenly having to pay their own credit cards and don't know what options are out there. I t boggles my mind just how many people I talk to that don't know that a shoe could have been fixed, or a broken spring wasn't the end of their 2 year old chair, etc...If people knew what services were out there and that life still exists off-line there would be alot more use of local services.
Years ago Darren, when I lived in NYC, a friend worked for the NYC dept of sanitation (trash collector) and he used to pick up perfectly usable items he found in the trash in affluent neighborhoods. For instance, I remember he got a good hedge clipper that someone threw out because they had accidentally cut the cord.
Today, it seems that mentality has spread to other classes of society as well. Of course, not everyone can afford to ditch an item for such reasons, but they do it.
One reason that I think people are willing to toss and buy new is that we're not even in a repair mode anymore for so many things. I was trained as a secondary school Industrial Arts (now Tech Ed.) teacher. I had taken an interest in shop classes while in Junior H.S. Back then, it was considered part of a child's education to have a working knowledge of tools, techniques etc. even if that wasn't to be their trade. I remember a professor in college who told the class that even if a student never actually applies this education in their work life, they will be better equipped to deal with a repair person when they have some knowledge of the subject.
So, today, we've all but ditched Tech Ed. thinking that it's not necessary to have a knowledge of how things work and how to repair them.
Now I certainly realize that so much of what is produced today is meant to be used up and discarded as it's virtually un-repairable, but collectively, people who have repair skills might be less likely to even want to buy the throw-away stuff and if fewer bought it, there'd be less of a market for it.
Just a thought,
Rich
I recently saw a mattress sitting out by the curb. I stopped and cut the tag off (yes, I'm probably going to go to prison for removing the tag).
This mattress was renovated by my grandmother back in '69. People didn't just throw their mattresses out and buy new ones back then. They bought one with the intention of it lasting a lifetime. If it became worn out, they got it renovated and sterilized. And a new cover put on, all in one day for $30. We used to sterilize, and re-sell used mattresses. It was a big business. Now, people are so worried about cooties, you can't even give a used mattress away. I think the "cootie factor" has probably made it's way into the furniture world as well.
Another example of our throw away society.
(https://forum.upholster.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi775.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fyy33%2Fsofadoc%2Fth_DSC05761.jpg&hash=e9757b4e038fdfaef02a203a602a1ffa) (http://s775.photobucket.com/user/sofadoc/media/DSC05761.jpg.html)
Those same people have no issues sleeping in Hotels anywhere !
They could load up old mattresses and send them to countries that need them. They could have bundled in some mattresses on that plane that just carried away 400 million to who knows where and for what ?
SA
One of my delivery/moving co. customers used to get up to two semis of mattresses a week. They'd haul back the old ones upon request and I forget what they said they had to pay to dump them, but it was very expensive.
(and not to be picky, but shouldn't it be Bois D'arc (trans: Bow wood, pronounced as it's sometimes spelled "bow dark") and not Bois 'D arc ?)
[quote author=byhammerandhand link=topic=14161.msg115673#msg115673 date=1470438024
(and not to be picky, but shouldn't it be Bois D'arc (trans: Bow wood, pronounced as it's sometimes spelled "bow dark") and not Bois 'D arc ?)
[/quote]You are correct. We had 1000 tags that came from the printer that way.
But I think the literal translation of Bois D'arc means "Wood of the Ark". Because of the tree's appearance (branches looking old, almost petrified) people associated it with the wood used to build the Ark.
I didn't toil through 4 terms of French class for nothing.
The trees acquired the name bois d'arc, or "bow-wood", from early French settlers who observed the wood being used for war clubs and bow-making by Native Americans. -- Wikipedia.
M. pomifera has been known by a variety of common names in addition to Osage orange, including hedge apple, horse apple, bois d'arc, bodark, bow-wood, yellow-wood, mock orange and monkey ball.
I think printers and sign painters should be expert spellers and grammarians. I saw a sign, professionally made, recently that said "Alpaca's for Sale." I also laugh when I see the sign on the back of someone's truck, " Masonary" I mean how good can you be if you don't know your profession is "Masonry" not "Masonary?" Any Uphosturers out there?
I only did 2 years of French, so I bow to you.
But if we're really getting technical, the A is capitalized. So it should be Bois D'Arc.
Masonary: One who spreads the good news of all the many benefits to building structures from individual units laid in and bound together by mortar.
No French here, so I'll ask, "Was Bois D'Arc the brother of Joan of Arc?"
That's really interesting, sofaD, finding a tag on an old mattress like that. I wonder if someone was using it up until it got pitched by the side of the road.
I'm working on 4 pieces of furniture that have an interesting deadline. They are moving to Florida next week. They built their retirement house in Bradenton, Florida. I told them if they wanted quality work they should have it done by me instead of waiting until after they moved to Florida. I didn't really say that. They probably checked on the prices for reupholstery in Florida and went with me because I'm so much cheaper. LOL
gene
Quote from: gene on August 05, 2016, 06:35:58 pm
That's really interesting, sofaD, finding a tag on an old mattress like that. I wonder if someone was using it up until it got pitched by the side of the road.
Yes. The customer's name is on the tag (Lynch). Mrs. Lynch had been a longtime customer right up until her recent death.
My grandmother made all her mattresses and recovered all her furniture. Then my mother re-recovered it. And I re-re-recovered it.
I'll grant you the A but not the D. Bois d'Arc, since it was a street name.
Oh, and add to the list tattoo artists.
https://www.facebook.com/thatawesometattoopage/photos/a.1719936694891181.1073741828.1719923914892459/1748387075379476/?type=3
And Gene, that was Beau d'Arc, sometimes called Bo Dark in the bars of the time period. "Joan (breathe, breathe), I am your brother."
I used to work with a guy from Kansas City who described the Osage Orange wood as "harder than the hubs of Hades." I have a piece of it and I'd second that opinion. I don't think I could get a chisel into it.
What will our grandkids do to spend their days when they don't have to work?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/robots-are-coming-for-your-job-and-most-of-you-dont-even-know-it-2016-03-10?mod=MethodeStories&link=sfmw_fb
A day in the life of a robot upholsterer.
Customer goes to a web site and on it are multiple choices of the sofa she wants to recover and choices of fabric.
The electronic voice gives her a price and pickup date. She pays with electronic credits.
Two robots in a van arrive at the house to load the sofa into the van.
When they get back to the shop they do a scan of the sofa and fabric to calculate the best placement of the fabric.
A laser cutter cuts the fabric. It separates the sewing portion from the upholstery portion.
While one robot is sewing the cushions, decking and welts etc. the other is upholstering the fabric to the frame.
I just don't see this happening. At least not with our current robotic system. 50 years from now who knows.
I can see robots in a repetitive manufacturing environment. But as for now, doing what we do, its hard to imagine.
I can see robots reducing the price of new furniture even further. But I cannot see them reupholstering furniture that is not programed into their system. Maybe I'm not looking at the big picture.
You forgot a few:
Robot gets bitchy phone calls from customer because fabric was late arriving from supplier, and sofa is finished yet.
Robot didn't anticipate customer furnishing ultra-thin fabric purchased from the bargain bin at Hobby Lobby (even robot can't distinguish between face and back of fabric).
Robot designer insists that 12 yards will do a 15 yard sofa.
Robot refuses to reboot until 50% deposit is paid (even though robot designer has promised to send robot upholsterer a LOT more business if robot upholsterer will give robot designer a substantial discount).
Robot goes on robot upholstery forum like this one, and whines about how overworked, underpaid, and definitely underappreciated robot is.
And complains about the robot down the street who does less then quality work and is always under computing its estimate.
Were working on two separate church jobs. The first one we're pretty sure we have and the other we're still working on. We just got back from a late night dog walk and noticed a message on the recorder. It was from the pastor. The weird thing was it was in a robotic type voice. It was obvious the pastor dictated this message but it came out in a female electronic voice thanking us for the fabric samples. Weird. Why didn't he just leave us a personal message?
Quote from: gene on August 04, 2016, 05:04:40 am
Two weeks ago I heard the term "brown", used to describe older furniture and antiques. It's meant to be derogatory. I do a lot of reupholstery for retired folks who spent their lives buying the best furniture available and collecting antique furniture. They are downsizing and often cannot give their furniture away to their grandchildren who are married and just starting families.
I think young people like to shop. And if they buy quality furniture that will last a lifetime, they will miss out on the many trips they could have made to IKEA or Costco to replace their broken chairs and worn out sofas.
gene
You've hit the nail on the head, the thrill of the bargain has taken over from the long lasting contentment of a good buy.
Quotethe thrill of the bargain
Scott, that sounds similar to a gambling addiction. Gambling addicts are after the "thrill" of hitting it big. It's not about actually winning. :(
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Robots: I wonder what kind of 'off topics' they would write about on their Robot Upholstery Forum?
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SofaD
Quoteeven though robot designer has promised to send robot upholsterer a LOT more business if
I had a new ID tell me last week that she can bring me a lot of business. This is the third time I've had an ID tell me this. The first one stiffed me for the sales tax on the first job I did for her, and she had me do a lot of estimates including yardage estimates on another big job and then took my work to another uphosterer. She actually called me to ask why I said 12 yards on a love seat and the other upholsterer was saying 20 yards. The second ID gave me one job and I haven't heard from her since. I told this new ID I did not want a lot of business. I'm staying busy and will try to fit her work in if I can. She was not too happy with me not grovelling and thanking her profusely for gracing me with her presence. But she does NEED me to get this current job done ASAP!!!!!
gene
Quote from: gene on August 07, 2016, 05:22:24 am
She was not too happy with me not grovelling and thanking her profusely for gracing me with her presence.
I've never tried to hide my disdain for ID's on this forum. I have a few that I have a wonderful relationship with. And we have that wonderful relationship because I make it perfectly clear that they need me a lot more than I need them.
Not just ID's, but all customers...........when I start to sense that I'm expected to grovel, that's an immediate deal breaker.
Another topic gone way off course.
There are some stores around here that advertise, "50% off every day!" ( well, then that would be the regular price.)
Another, "Guaranteed Low Price or It's Free!!!" Wonder how often they've come through on that? "No, we can't beat $1299, here just take it and we can deliver on Tuesday."
And Gene, I think you are over-estimating the capabilities of AI to get so off-topic.
Quote from: gene on August 07, 2016, 05:22:24 am
Quotethe thrill of the bargain
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Robots: I wonder what kind of 'off topics' they would write about on their Robot Upholstery Forum?
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QuoteAnd Gene, I think you are over-estimating the capabilities of AI to get so off-topic.
AI will someday create and store memories. AI will someday replicate human consciousness. AI will someday create life itself. The last remaining unsolved problem going into the 22nd century will be how to get AI to go off topic on discussion forums. :)
gene
Quote from: gene on August 07, 2016, 05:22:24 am
Scott, that sounds similar to a gambling addiction. Gambling addicts are after the "thrill" of hitting it big. It's not about actually winning. :(
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gene
Gene, I think you used a good word to describe modern society; Addiction. Or we can say "addicted". So many of us I think, are utterly disenchanted (or beaten down) with the pressures of modern life, and are gravitating to whatever thrills us and these thrills are developing into full-blown addictions even though few of us will admit that that's what they are.
Rich