Nothing illustrates a point like a good ole' chart or graph.
Here's one I comprised from the stat page of this forum:
(https://forum.upholster.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi775.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fyy33%2Fsofadoc%2Fth_DSC05473.jpg&hash=840453c38d24b3ff88101f5dd4b08300) (http://s775.photobucket.com/user/sofadoc/media/DSC05473.jpg.html)
As you can see, activity took a nosedive in 2013.
Just wondering. Is it because fewer people are interested in this trade? Or is it because people are turning to other forms of social media?
It does sometimes seem like a handful of us are keeping this discussion board propped up.
I doubt less people are into the trade. That has been equal for years now. Might be the number of people doing the posting runs around the same. I've found through the years here and in other forums. Few people stick around and the group become smaller. Lets face it the information here is not for the general population.
This was posted, by me, on Dec. 10, 2012, just before the big crash. I'm wondering if maybe I shouldn't have done it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZr3_Ac_nB4
Or, maybe the rapture happened and we now know who has been left behind.
I tend to look at this board more as information gathering than a social media outlet. I don't have any other forums that I frequent. I'm grateful for all the stuff I've learned on this board and I keep hanging around to keep on learning and to give back to other folks if I can.
If we keep up the trend, we'll have:
2014: 394
2015: 220
2016: 124
2017: 69
2018: 39
2019: 22
2020: 12
gene
I think part of it is many of us, including myself were big posters. I used to check this forum two and three times a day on my breaks. In the last couple months I have not had time to get on here. I have gone several days without getting on here. I think with the uptick in the economy some people are busier then they were before and unable to find time to post.
Every forum has their hit and run members. Ones who come on, post like crazy and then disappear.
I have seen this on several forums I belong to.
Social media I know has taken a toll on a number of forum memberships. One I was involved with tanked when facebook became popular. Mike and I are on facebook and I keep up with the latest in his life through there and he does the same with me. Both of us also have business pages on Facebook and we use our personal pages strictly for personal stuff and the business for business stuff, never mixing the two.
I am not sure all the reasons why so many have left. How are the other upholstery forums doing ? Carrs Corner and the Hog Ring ?
Chris
ive noticed fewer questions from newbie's too
maybe its just the cold winter
Carr's Corner is down a lot too. But I think Gene is just making up those numbers. His series does not seem to fit any of the standard series -- arithmetic, geometric, Fibonacci, half-life decay, etc. I did a least squares regression and the numbers just don't fit too smooth a curve.
But I know the answer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPlsqo2bk2M
Quote from: Mojo on January 26, 2014, 05:43:06 pm
I am not sure all the reasons why so many have left. How are the other upholstery forums doing ? Carrs Corner and the Hog Ring ?
Carr's Corner has almost no activity at all. But most of the CC members (including me) now belong to a Facebook group, where there is a small amount of postings.
I agree with Paul. I think the number of upholsterers has held steady for several years now. But many people who get into this trade started out as a hobbyist, or DIYer. I think the number of THOSE people has dropped significantly.
I agree that the economy has picked up a little. So stitchers are busier. But I don't think that is the reason for the drop-off in this forum's activity. People would find the time to post here if they truly wanted to.
Several times lately, I have typed out a reply to a topic, read it back to myself, and then deleted it because I realized that I've already said the same thing before. We seem to be beating a dead horse sometimes.
I think that people are simply turning more to non-upholstery related social media.
I post far less than I used to because I have fewer questions. You guys answered most of them several year ago (Thanks!!). It seems there are fewer newbies with questions and problems but also we established people post fewer project photos and accomplishments. I think the green room is a problem. I never go there - I simply forget. I'd like to see all posts, including those project photos here. Galleries of completed projects garner lots of posts, including those "how'd you get THAT done" comments.
June
QuoteI realized that I've already said the same thing before. We seem to be beating a dead horse sometimes.
I've been tempted to think that way at times two---but then I remember that, while you "lifers" have heard me say something for years, it is new to some who only read here. I also know my memory could use a refresher quite often as well.
Quote from: Darren Henry on January 27, 2014, 03:21:22 pm
QuoteI realized that I've already said the same thing before. We seem to be beating a dead horse sometimes.
I've been tempted to think that way at times two---but then I remember that, while you "lifers" have heard me say something for years, it is new to some who only read here. I also know my memory could use a refresher quite often as well.
Thzt is very true. People dont like to take the time to searchfor past topics ans some probably wouldn't know what to search for.. so don't be shy about repeating yourself. After all we are mostly older and cant remember anyway.
QuoteBut I think Gene is just making up those numbers.
Keith, when did I ever give you the impression that I was an accountant???
Sofa Ds 2013 total is 56% of his 2012 total. Take the 2013 total and multiply by 56% for an extrapolated 2014 total. Take that number and multiply it by 56% for an extrapolated 2015 total. etc. etc.
I think that ever since sofad drove off all the spammers...
gene
Very good, just seeing if anyone is paying attention. I determined the ratio was about 1/1.77 or .564. Not all the numbers worked, but it was close.
Thanks Everybody, just reading some of the post now and again is a blast. Experience does matter and newbies mmhgulp do listen, just don't pay attention. So please rehash or repeat any and all as the new issue comes around again on projects. Just a tip on pictures ( more ).
I search and search and search and try not to ask until my tired @#% wants to fall asleep, but hard headed and taught to do some home work do keep at it. Realy some of the post crack me up and are great morale boosters, besides keeping me on path no matter how slow.
Hey have a great day
I come here for advice to to offer help when I can. I am a professional upholsterer and have been in the trade since 1981. I think the number of people posting goes up and down because there are a lot of people out there that think this is a craft and anyone can learn the trade in a very short time. I don't know about you but I am still learning. So they come here tell us their problems, find out it is no easy task and drop it and move onto some other venture. I consider our trade an Art, and takes years to become a pro, I know their are some where they are just a natural but for most of us it takes a great teacher, I bet most of us have learned working under a very experienced upholsterer in our early years. I learned from a German Master.
Actually, there is one minor mistake in my graph. The ID on the left side of the graph says "New Posts". It should say "New Topics".
New posts dropped from 9227 in 2012 to 6500 in 2013. About a 29% drop.
There seems to be fewer newbies coming on with the same basic questions like "How do I slow my machine down?".......or "Why did they put so many staples?" And of course, they're always looking for a nice inexpensive little 2 week course that will transform them into a master upholsterer (or even better, a 2 hour video).
People also seem to be taking their "off-topic" posts elsewhere. Just serious upholstery questions and experiences. No Friday Funnies, no political rants, no BS sessions.
Personally, I enjoy the off-topic discussions. By getting into some of your heads, it helps me to better understand what went so horribly wrong in my life that led to me becoming an upholsterer. ;)
So here again numbers only tell part of the story :)
56% drop off in New Topics BUT only a 29% dip in overall posts . . . perhaps we should do some additional regression analysis to see if this is truly a trend or just an outlier year (Yo Keith can you pitch in here?)
As a newbie to this forum I have limited experience overall BUT truly enjoy the camaraderie it lends to those of us in this profession. It's hard for me to fathom what my current exposure and thought processes would be like without this forum, Carr's Corner, and the Facebook group. Sure, I like to showcase some of my work on Facebook as it is EASY in comparison to this and the other forum site. Plus, because Facebook flows visually as soon as entered it is possible to SEE images faster than here where one must click through multiple 'word pages' to get to the guts.
I can appreciate what it takes to manage over sites like this and Carr's Corner for OUR BENEFIT. However, these have a different 'feel' than Facebook so is not only somewhat less inviting to newcomers but perhaps also intimidating (just thinking out loud). I do use the search field for past posts here and at Carr's; but I must confess it is cumbersome as one sifts through multiple topics whilst looking for an answer.
And then there is the willingness to 'put oneself out there' to ask questions of colleagues (or experts from some viewpoints). I am far from having the years of service in this field compared to long-timers such as Dennis and Mike. And although I enjoy reading your posts at times I am uncomfortable chiming in for fear of being ridiculed or kicked around (and then are those days where it's like 'oh what the hell').
The above rambling does not explain the current decrease in activity . . . it may however, bring about an awareness that quantity of posts does not equal quality of posts (just saying :)
Pareto distribution (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_distribution): 20% of the members do 80% of the posts. Strict interpretation of the 80/20 rule holds precisely when the Pareto index is α = log4(5) = log(5)/log(4), approximately 1.161. Coincidentally, or not, that is also the Golden Ratio (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio), which as designers, we should know and at least consider when faced with "how much" issues.
I'm going to shut up now.
Quote from: Lo on January 28, 2014, 05:52:12 pm
So here again numbers only tell part of the story :)
56% drop off in New Topics BUT only a 29% dip in overall posts . . . perhaps we should do some additional regression analysis to see if this is truly a trend or just an outlier year (Yo Keith can you pitch in here?)
Gotta agree what was said about diyers. I have one customer who did his own enclosure, he did a darned good job and said he saved thousands, he also said hed never do it again. Canvaswork seems outragous expensive, till they learn all thats involved and equipment necessary. I dont often reside in a place with an internet connection as I stay anchored somewhere most of the time. Thus my activity comes in spurts. mostly when im visiting a girlfriend on shore.
QuoteI dont often reside in a place with an internet connection as I stay anchored somewhere most of the time. Thus my activity comes in spurts. mostly when im visiting a girlfriend on shore.
Have you ever considered one of those internet sticks? It's a device the size of (and plugs in like) a flash drive. It gives your computer/lap top access to the same satellite technology as the "smart phones" use. I bought one when Dad was dying so he could use my sister's lap top from the hospital (no internet connection in the entire building) and it was great. I have it on a pay as you go plan [duh] that is ≈$43/month. My home cable internet is $58.
The internet is my only contact with the outside world. I only add time to my cell phone when I go back to Ontario,my home phone is a Magic Jack ™, and no one remembers how to write a proper letter ---so the rest is all e-mail. We've had "issues" with the satellite internet at work flaking out, and I've had to take it out there a couple of times.
Not just an upholsterer Sofa but a true blue died in the wool couldn't dream of doing any thing else upholsterer. Oh wait that's me. Yikes!
I've been on the forum less because the wife and I both got jobs in the city. We bought another house to be closer to work and that house has no internet or phone or TV. That makes me a visitor to this site when we visit our country home on weekends.
Also because of our new jobs our upholstery business has slowed to a crawl. I don't have the business questions I once had. Most of my latest questions deal with being an employee rather than an employer. Some times I can't help but feel like I'm coming off as whiny when I talk about the odd situations that come up while working for someone else.
I still visit every weekend but only reply when its something I have strong feelings for.
The transition from business owner to employee is tough. But we got back our W2's this week and were doing much better than when we were self employed.
I joined Facebook last year with great enthusiasm but lately have tapered off that also. Maybe just to busy.
Always looking for that next great opportunity.
Ed
PS: I remember times when new posts would fill an entire page.
Quote from: kodydog on January 31, 2014, 06:50:43 pm
Most of my latest questions deal with being an employee rather than an employer. Some times I can't help but feel like I'm coming off as whiny when I talk about the odd situations that come up while working for someone else.
You're one of the few on this forum that can speak from the perspective of both employee, and self-employed. I actually enjoy your posts about your workplace. I don't think they come off whiny at all. It sounds like one big dysfunctional family (just like every workplace).
I pretty much assumed that your schedule was the reason why you aren't on here as much.
Remember when guys like Gregg from Keystone, and Andrew from DLT posted on a daily basis?
It's the last day of January 2014, and we're down about 300 posts from Jan 2013. The downward trend continues. Total page views down 66%.
http://www.google.com/imgres?biw=1366&bih=636&tbm=isch&tbnid=BaWgHHGti0teXM%3A&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.shutterstock.com%2Fsimilar-61699147%2Fstock-vector-cartoon-angry-man-isolated-on-white-background.html&docid=yDNBfqjYzsLuVM&imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fthumb7.shutterstock.com%2Fdisplay_pic_with_logo%2F1277392%2F152657459%2Fstock-vector-businessman-cartoon-boss-man-angry-at-sales-or-profit-chart-going-down-152657459.jpg&w=450&h=300&ei=WF7uUvivFojzqwHZk4GoDw&zoom=1&ved=0CIgCEIQcMDo&iact=rc&dur=1432&page=4&start=58&ndsp=24
gene
The trend continues. New posts for Feb '14 are down 20% from Feb '13.
Total page views are down nearly 75%.
I hate to see forums like this one dry up.
I learned something last week I was doing 2 very tricky seam sequence to sew had to sew these pieces first then that in a special order you no?. ive been here many time but this time I remember to write down the order that I took the old skin pieces apart patterning and sewed the seams in the reverse , made life a lot eeasier m I don't know why it took so long for something so simple
I don't think it will ever dry up but will continue to be less busy as in the past.
Chris
QuoteThe trend continues.
At least we're being consistent.
Furniture reupholstery has/is going the way of the buggy whip.
Only a few things are DIY: dining room slip seats, simple ottomans, etc.
No new workers are coming into the trade. Not enough business, the work is too hard, the learning curve is too long. The only plus is that the startup costs are low.
Old people who own quality furniture and would choose to reupholster are dying off - helping to kill the trade. Pun intended.
I was talking to an old timer upholsterer Friday and he said if an upholsterer could get a restaurant chain or a hotel chain that could help them stay in business. He was saying a furniture upholsterer would need this to stay in business. He's seen a lot of folks go out of business and those still in are not staying busy.
I wonder if this forum helps Ken sell products? I would hope so.
gene
I'm wondering if the down turn has something to do with the down turn in the economy. Less people in the trade like Gene suggested. A lot of shops have had a hard time surviving these last 6 or 7 years, including myself.
I see from other posts everyone on this forum seems now to be pretty busy, including myself. This may be from picking up customers the other shops left behind when they closed their doors or maybe the economy is slowly turning around. Its doing pretty good in Florida. Jo-Ann Fabrics just opened a huge store in Gainesville. They must be expecting big things.
I'm thinking as more people get back into the business we'll be hearing from them.
Quote from: kodydog on March 02, 2014, 06:55:45 am
I'm wondering if the down turn has something to do with the down turn in the economy. Less people in the trade like Gene suggested. A lot of shops have had a hard time surviving these last 6 or 7 years, including myself.
I've often wondered how I would fare in a highly competitive area (probably not too well).
Quote from: kodydog on March 02, 2014, 06:55:45 am
I see from other posts everyone on this forum seems now to be pretty busy, including myself. This may be from picking up customers the other shops left behind when they closed their doors
That has been MY experience around here. As other shops go "belly up".......more for me. But if just ONE new shop opened up down the street and took away half my business, we would probably both go broke within a year. There's more than enough for one.....but there ain't enough for two.
I've said this before, but a supply salesman always tell me "In every small town, when the upholsterer dies......nobody takes his place".
This topic ties in with the other thread about trying to find a good sewing machine mechanic. There are fewer of them because there are fewer professional stitchers. That's why most SM repairmen only fix domestic machines and vacuum cleaners.
But I still think that the downturn in activity on this forum has more to do with other forms of social media taking a bite out of the old fashioned discussion boards.
I think another problem is that it is getting more and more difficult to own your own business, and the benefits are getting less and less.
The news media is doing a good job of not reporting on all the businesses that are reducing the number of employees to a number that will not require them to provide obamacare.
The IRS and obamacare have a 5 page document that defines what a full time employee is for obamacare. As a small business owner you either take the time to read it or pay someone else to read it for you. And yet another cost...
I'm hearing more commercials for "IF YOU OWE THE IRS MORE THAN $10,000..." I think these are mostly small business owners who either did not know all the rules and laws and regulations, or knew them and tried to get away with not following them to put a few extra bucks in their pockets.
The fed uses the IRS for 2 purposes: to collect money to pay for the government, and to control unwanted behavior by taxing it more. As we move into being a s o c i a l i s t society where the government provides more and more of our needs, small businesses are not wanted by the government.
(Anybody think that joining the Tea Party will NOT increase your chances of being audited?)
24 million additional pieces of paper are expected to be added to the 2013 federal tax returns just for the changes to 1099s.
gene
PS: Let's have lunch and discuss merging our businesses and then deduct 1/2 the cost of the meal. And don't forget that when you give me tickets to Hawaii for helping you make so much money, you can only deduct $25 of the cost of those tickets.